Weekend Rates Update

Mortgage rates ended the week at their lowest point in over a month. The move in the bond market was actually larger than what translated into rate pricing — meaning there may be more room for improvement that hasn’t fully shown up yet. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s worth noting.

What drove it.

A two-week ceasefire expanded into an agreed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz this week. Markets responded immediately — stocks surged, oil dropped, and bonds rallied. Lower oil prices matter for mortgage rates because energy costs feed directly into inflation, and inflation is the enemy of low rates. Less inflation pressure means bonds become more attractive, yields fall, and mortgage rates follow.

This is still a developing situation. Geopolitical agreements can unravel. But for now, the direction is favorable.

What the housing data is telling us.

While rates were improving, the market data painted a picture of a buyer’s window that quietly opened:

• Existing home sales dropped 3.6% this week
• Purchase mortgage applications fell roughly 1%
• Nearly 40% of sellers are now expecting to offer concessions

Slower sales volume plus motivated sellers plus improving rates is a combination that doesn’t come around often. Buyers who act during this window tend to fare better than those waiting for a headline that says “now is the time.”

Talking points for your client conversations this week.

• On seller concessions: Nearly 4 in 10 sellers are coming to the table expecting to give something. Rate buydowns, closing cost credits, price reductions — this is negotiating leverage your buyers may not see again once momentum shifts.
• On rates: We’re at the lowest levels in over a month, and the bond market moved more than rates reflected. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes further, there’s a case for continued improvement.
• On timing: 22% of all active mortgages are above 6%, per Q4 FHFA data. That’s a large pool of future refinance candidates. Buyers who purchase now could be well-positioned when rates move lower.

The market is giving buyers an opening right now. Our job is helping them see it.

I track this every week so you don’t have to.

— Whitney